Singapore dissolved parliament Tuesday and set May 7 as the date for a general election in which the ruling party is expected to face its toughest political challenge in decades.
The People's Action Party (PAP), led by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, holds a commanding grip on power, but analysts say rising discontent over bread-and-butter issues could boost a historically weak opposition, giving them more seats in the 87-member legislature.
The ruling party held 82 out of 84 seats after the last election in May 2006, albeit with 66.6% of the popular vote. Three more members will be elected in this poll following revisions to electoral boundaries earlier this year.
Opposition parties say they plan to contest all parliamentary seats, an unprecedented move that would mean the balance of power won't be decided when parties have to name candidates on April 27.
"The opposition parties are going into this election on a far firmer footing, with a far wider range of information available to the electorate thanks to social media, and as a result (the opposition) are far more confident of the outcome," Dr. Vincent Wijeysingha, assistant treasurer of the opposition Singapore Democratic Party, told Dow Jones Newswires.
"People want more effective representation in Parliament. People want to be heard. People want their concerns and their alternative ideas to have bearing in the public space," Wijeysingha said.
No one expects the opposition to win, or even seriously challenge the PAP's grip on power. But a stronger opposition represents another step along Singapore's slow road to greater pluralism and liberalization.
The election comes as the PAP is looking for ways to maintain its relevance in coming decades, bringing in new and younger candidates and trying to attract younger voters.
Founded by former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, the PAP has controlled Parliament since Singapore's independence in 1965, and its lawmakers held all seats in the legislature until 1981.
The party is credited with creating a prosperous financial dynamo on this small, resource-poor island: The economy is projected to grow 4%-6% this year, after surging 14.5% in 2010.
But the government faces mounting criticism for Singapore's dependence on foreign workers, as well as for stagnant wages, high inflation and an income gap that's one of the largest among developed countries and growing wider.
Government data shows foreigners make up over a quarter of Singapore's 5.1 million people, up from 19% in 2000. According to the U.N., the city-state's Gini coefficient--a measure of income inequality where zero reflects total equality and one reflects maximal inequality--was at 0.425 for the 2000-2010 period, the second-highest among 42 nations with "very high human development."
Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, a former prime minister, acknowledged Monday that inflation worries mean "the ground may not be sweet" for the ruling party this time.
"In this environment, it is a much harder sell for the incumbent," CIMB economist Song Seng Wun said. "There is enough of a groundswell of dissatisfaction for the opposition to play on."
Singapore's often-fragmented opposition is also better poised to ride these tailwinds, having swelled its ranks with several high-caliber candidates, including a top corporate lawyer, academics and former civil servants.
In four of the past nine elections, the opposition contested fewer than half the seats. This time, though no opposition party is strong enough to contest all seats by itself, opposition leaders reached agreement last month to collectively challenge all constituencies this time around.
The Workers' Party, which won one seat in 2006, is likely to field the most candidates, probably more than 20. The National Solidarity Party, Singapore Democratic Party, Reform Party and the Singapore People's Party also will contest seats.
"This is going to be the most competitive election since independence, with the strongest opposition slate in Singapore's history," said Cherian George, an associate professor studying media and politics at the city-state's Nanyang Technological University.
"Nobody, including the PAP, would be surprised if the ruling party's share of the popular vote dipped below the 66.6% they enjoyed in the last election," George said.
To woo the public, the government has rolled out populist policies including tighter immigration rules, property cooling measures and one-off budget handouts worth S$3.2 billion targeting lower-income residents. In its manifesto, released Sunday, the PAP also promised more jobs, higher incomes and greater investment in education and infrastructure.
Lee Kuan Yew, who is the current prime minister's father and now holds the title of Minister Mentor in the Cabinet, has said he will contest this election. If elected, he would be 92 at the end of his five-year term.
At the same time, the PAP is seeking to rejuvenate its leadership by bringing in 24 new candidates, from among whom it says Singapore's next generation of leaders may emerge. Several retiring ministers and backbench lawmakers will be replaced.
Whatever the outcome of the vote, at least nine opposition politicians will enter Parliament, as mandated by constitutional amendments passed last year. But that might include non-constituency legislators--defeated opposition candidates with the best results--who have limited voting rights.
Opposition parties face other significant hurdles, including Singapore's use of a system in which most members of Parliament are elected in teams rather than individually.
In addition, PAP leaders in the past have successfully sued opposition politicians for defamation. PAP leaders say they welcome debate and file lawsuits only to protect their reputations.
-By Chun Han Wong, Dow Jones Newswires; +65 64154 160; chunhan.wong@dowjones.com
Næringsmegling Oslo
ReplyDeleteNæringsmegling
Næringseiendom
næringseiendom oslo
salg av næringseiendom
utleie av næringseiendom
søk etter lokaler
transaksjon
verdivurdering